How does the Forecast tab work, and what does "Expected to work" mean?

Forecast shows each upcoming event: coaches confirmed so far, whether you're on pace with last year, projected spend against your budget, and how many of today's confirmed coaches should end up working. It's always a projection, never a result.

Where:

Reports → Forecast.

What each column means

Column What it means
Confirmed Coaches confirmed so far, against your coach target, and how many came last year
Pace vs last year Ahead, On track or Behind, comparing today with how many of last year's coaches had confirmed the same number of days before the event
Projected spend Confirmed coaches times their stipends, against your budget
Expected to work Of the coaches confirmed today, about how many should end up working, and how many more to confirm to reach your target
Typical stipend The middle stipend for coaches confirmed so far, next to the typical stipend across all events

How "Expected to work" is worked out

  1. Each confirmed coach's chance of working comes from their own record across all events. A coach with little history is counted close to the average.
  2. That is then adjusted for how this event's past rosters turned out: what happened to the coaches who were confirmed this many days out in the last 3 years.
  3. A dropout means a coach accepted, then cancelled or didn't show. A declined offer or a transfer doesn't count.

Good to know

  • Pace needs last year's confirmation dates, so it can say "Not enough history" for some events.
  • "Expected to work" is the same number shown on Staff strength. See RP-09.
  • The typical stipend uses the median, so one very large stipend doesn't skew it.